Grassroots Redemption: JFRS VA Primary Night Predictions

Godzilla Of Truth Primary Predictions – Virginia 

It's the year of the grassroots 

Truth to Power In Petersburg 

By John Fredericks 


He's been ostracized by both major Virginia political parties. As a sitting incumbent House of Delegates member, he was kicked out of the Democratic Party by the Richmond establishment elites and was denied renomination.

He ran as an Independent and won election for his seat while serving time in county jail. 

The Republicans, in control of the General Assembly, shunned him, gave him a converted closet for an office and stripped him of all committee assignments. 

He ran for Richmond mayor, seized the lead in early polling, only to see his vote base collapse on election day when the entire Richmond establishment rallied to stop him: bankers, financial houses, monied interests, lobby shops, Democrat elites, developers, Governor McAuliffe, and Republicans. He finished third.

Everyone wrote Joe Morrissey off as politically dead. Until tonight, that is. A funny thing happened on the way to "Fighting Joe's" political wake. It's called voters. 

"Pothole Joe," as I call him, is poised to pull the upset of the decade tonight. 

I'm predicting that Pothole Joe upsets longtime establishment incumbent Sen. Roz Dance today in the Democratic primary for state senate in District 16, which encompasses Petersburg, Dinwiddie, Hopewell and parts of Richmond. 

Morrissey has knocked on over 10,000 doors, he's walked neighborhoods 139 out of the last 142 days, and he has focused on the needs of his district. The former House member, a defense attorney before he was disbarred for the second time last year by the Virginia Bar, is known for his flamboyance, and for defending those in trouble who had meager defense resources. Morrissey once won over 50 trials in a row in central Virginia.

Now he stresses what matters most to his potential constituents: he promises to fix potholes, smelly dumps, out of control water bills and untimely trash pickup.

His opponent says that is not her job. "Pothole Joe" says he'll make the calls to get it done. 

He's also unabashedly pro-life.

"You can revere life and also be a proud Democrat," Morrissey said on my radio show this week. 

Dance hit the trifecta of big Virginia Democratic Party elites, garnering endorsements from: Governor Ralph Northam, Senator Tim Kaine, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, and many other state senators. 

Morrissey has picked up the official endorsement of only four Democratic officials — all former or current mayors in cities in the district. 

Morrissey, who hosts a popular radio show from 10:00 AM to 12:00 pm in Richmond on my station–WJFN 100.5 FM, "The Fighting Joe Morrissey Show," talks to people every day who call into his show. This is a huge advantage. Talk radio callers tell you all you need to know. Take it from me: it's a daily truth serum….an everyday dose of reality. If you listen, that is. 

Predictions –

Upset #1 State Senate District 16 – Democrat 

Morrissey over Dance 

Upset #2 State Senate District 24 – GOP 

Tina Freitas over incumbent Emmett Hanger.

On paper, Sen. Hanger should win this race. He's a wonderful man and he's served with purpose and integrity for 24 years.

Freitas, wife of former Green Beret and House of Delegates member Nick Freitas, is a novice first time candidate who has been on offense vs. Hanger since day one of the race. She's attempted to draw a contrast with Hanger on life, guns, Medicare expansion and taxes. 

While her ideological attacks have been admirably defended by Hanger, they have resonated in a very conservative district, and have put the veteran legislator on defense. 

Where Freitas will win this race is on pure enthusiasm and grassroots activism. She brings a level of vigor and excitement to her base that Hanger can't match. I emceed a fundraiser for her last month in Northern Virginia hosted by Pete Snyder and I was blown away by the turnout and enthusiasm of her supporters.

It reminded me of Amanda Chase in 2015, when she upset incumbent Sen. Steve Martin in Chesterfield. I got that race wrong then. 

I won't get it wrong this time. I'm a quick study. 
The Chalk 

Democratic State Senate–District 6 

Lewis over Randall 

Lynwood this and Lynwood that, yeah whatever. All he does is win races. Again. 

Democratic State Senate–District 7

Cheryl Turpin in a walk on the beach. 

Democratic State Senate–District 11

Amanda Pohl over E. Wayne Powell. 

It will be the battle of the Amandas in November! 

Democratic State Senate–District 12

Rodman over Gupta Lothe  

The Empire Strikes Back 

Democratic State Senate–District 33

Boysko over Hussain

Go Boysko! Next stop: governor's mansion (sorry Jennifer). 

Democratic State Senate–District 31

Favola over Merlene  

See Barbara, you are loved — really! 

Democratic State Senate–District 35

Saslaw over Taeb

The Godfather crushes Taeb 

LOL, this is a rout! Dick Saslaw has knocked on a bazillion doors, and made a jillion phone calls. Meanwhile his opponent, Yasmine Taeb, a complete social media creation, just called for cops in Virginia to be disarmed. She believes cops should throw cupcakes at would be assailants. 

Saslaw wins big with this simple mantra: vote for me, I'm not nuts. 

Oh, and I get money for roads and Metro, too!

Democrats House Of Delegates – District 50 

Lee over Wolfe

It's #CommyLee of the CCCP over Wolfe! Karl Marx would be proud! Workers of the world unite! 

GOP State Senate–District 7

Weems over Kiggans 

First, Carolyn Weems is a school board member and has been elected in the District seven times. Second: Chris LaCivita is her general consultant. Third, Weems wins, although Kiggans is closing and makes it too close for comfort. She needed another two weeks. Chris took this one wire to wire. 

Remember the name Jen Kiggans. She'll be back. 

GOP State Senate–District 13

Higgins over Meyer and Buscher

Chris LaCivita goes two for two with Higgins. I don't bet against Chris in Senate primaries in Virginia. Higgins earns the unique pleasure of losing in the fall against juggernaut Democrat John Bell.

Ron Meyer, you'll call me on election night in November and say thank goodness John you were right. A bright future for sure Ron–just not tonight. 

GOP State Senate–District 15

Ruff over Sturdifen  


GOP State Senate–District 17 

Reeves over Breeden 

Seriously Rich Breeden, you called Bryce Reeves a "Never Trumper?" If he's a Never Trumper — give me another 250 just like him for the 2020 Trump Re-election campaign in Virginia! 

Reeves in a romp.

GOP House of Delegates District 28 

Thomas over Milde 

Bob Thomas, the incumbent has worked hard. Paul Milde, who almost beat Thomas in 2017, has mounted another serious challenge. 

But Cissi Howell, former Speaker Bill Howell's wife, is for Thomas. Do you have any clue as to the influence of Cissi in that district? She's like the Fredericksburg Oracle. She puts Thomas over the top. 

GOP House of Delegates District 68 

Coward over Losi 

The GOP House of Delegates in Virginia has 51 members. 

None are African American. One is a Millennial. 

Garrison Coward is both. 


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