Nathan Gonzales, editor, and publisher of the nonpartisan elections rater Inside Elections said that if Democrats try to make Jan. 6 and the 2020 election a bigger issue in the 2nd, that could throw a wrench in the race for either party. “Independent voters are not anxious to re-litigate the 2020 election,” he said.
Inside Elections rated the 2nd a “toss-up” in 2022. It swung several points in Republicans’ favor after redistricting, and while Biden would have barely won it in 2020, Youngkin would have won it in 2021.
“If Republicans aren’t winning Virginia’s 2nd District in the fall, they’re probably not having as great a night as they would have hoped,” he said.